Global, regional, and national lifetime risk of developing and dying from lung cancer in 2022: A population-based study in 185 countries

Abstract

Abstract Background: Lifetime cancer risk is an index that indicates the cumulative probability of cancer at some age during a person’s lifetime. Nevertheless, comparative evaluations regarding the probability of developing lung cancer and dying from the disease among diverse populations at the global, regional, and national levels are scarce. Methods: Lung cancer data from 185 countries were obtained from GLOBOCAN 2022, and data on any other cause of death were acquired from the United Nations. The lifetime risks of lung cancer development and death were estimated using adjustment for multiple primary cancers (AMP) method. The lung cancer risks in countries or regions worldwide were compared by region and the Human Development Index (HDI). Results: The global lifetime risk of developing and dying from lung cancer in 2022 was 3.49% and 2.69%, respectively. The lifetime probabilities of developing lung cancer in countries/areas with low, medium, high, and very high HDIs were 0.33%, 0.95%, 4.72%, and 5.29%, and dying from lung cancer in low, medium, high and very high HDI countries were 0.30%, 0.86%, 3.69% and 3.92%, respectively. After the age of 40 years, the remaining probability of lung cancer development and death decreased with age, leaving a residual risk of 2.00% and 1.71%, respectively, starting at 70 years. Conclusions: The probability of developing lung cancer during one’s lifetime is equivalent to 1 in 28 and 1 in 37 people suffering and dying from lung cancer. The age-related risk of developing and dying of lung cancer varies among geographic locations with different HDIs.