Global reassembly: Empirical data in conceptual pursuit. European perspective

Abstract

The author explores a conceptual crisis in studies, dedicated to international relations, which are under pressure of growing number of threats and challenges. In search of new perspective models of global economic and political development and in the pursuit of attempts to explain the nature and causes of growing confrontation among different global actors specialists in IR, including European studies, propose various approaches and strategies, which often run counter to each other. The article focuses on a role of empirics in this scientific work, on a problem of measurability of different hypotheses and generalisations. On the basis of application of concrete indicators and data the author analyses the role of the EU, major European countries, Russia and other centres of power in world political-economic tables of ranks. The internal balance of power in the EU is explored, as well as main risks and vulnerabilities in its development. In the context of global reassembly the assessments are made on threats and challenges facing Russia. The conclusion is drawn that in the near future the phenomenon of polycentricity with elements of composite quasi-bipolarity will intensify. At the same tine, quasi-bipolarity represents more relevant configuration than the hypothesis about US-China “new bipolarity”. The United States and China more and more obviously shape new confrontational pivot of world politics in near future. This model is characterized with quasi-bipolarity because the number of rising powers, comparable with US and China in terms of capabilities and geopolitical ambitions, is much bigger than in the second half of XX century.