Abstract
Lead and zinc are used extensively in the construction and automotive industries, and require sustainable supply. In order to understand the future availability of lead and zinc, we have projected global supplies on a country-by-country basis from a detailed global assessment of mineral resources for 2013. The model GeRS-DeMo was used to create projections of lead and zinc production from ores, as well as recycling for lead. Our modelling suggests that lead and zinc production from known resources is set to peak within 15 years (lead 2025, zinc 2031). For lead, the total supply declines relatively slowly post peak due to recycling. If additional resources are found, these peaks would shift further into the future. These results suggest that lead and zinc consumers will need to plan for the future, potentially by: seeking alternative supplies (e.g., mine tailings, smelter/refinery slags); obtaining additional value from critical metals contained in lead-zinc ore deposits to counter lower grade ores; identifying potential substitutes; redesigning their products; or by contributing to the development of recycling industries.
Highlights
Questions surrounding the best approaches to managing the sustainable supply of natural resources on our planet have been answered in different ways, depending on the type of resource that is under consideration
Unless additional from resources arewill found soon, it is 15 projected that ifpeak current continue, zinc production mines peak within projected that if current trends continue, lead and zinc production from mines will peak within 15 years projected if zinc current trends lead and zincare production from years
We have developed a comprehensive set of country-by-country and global projections of lead and zinc supply including recycling for lead
Summary
Questions surrounding the best approaches to managing the sustainable supply of natural resources on our planet have been answered in different ways, depending on the type of resource that is under consideration. Calvo et al [24] use the United States Geological Survey (USGS) identified world lead resource estimate of 2000 Mt [25] With cumulative production, this figure would equate to a URR of ~2300 Mt, which is significantly higher than in the other models. GeRS-DeMo estimates production by applying a scheduling approach to determine the production of lead and zinc by country using the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand Model when a new mine should commence. The model lends itself to being updated of lead and zinc production and contributes to the literature by helping to narrow down the likely periodically with new estimates of known resources, for example, as new resource discoveries are peak years for production from known primary resources.
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