Abstract
The paper describes the algorithm and the results of the seismic hazard estimate based on the data of the seismological catalog of the US Geological Survey (USGS). The prediction algorithm is based on the search for clusters of seismic activity in which current activity trends correspond to foreshock sequences recorded before strong earthquakes (precedents) that have already occurred. The time of potential hazard of a similar earthquake is calculated by extrapolating the detected trends to the level of activity that took place at the time of the precedent earthquake. It is shown that the lead time of such a forecast reaches 10–15 years, and its implementation is due to the preservation and stability of the identified trends. The adjustment of the hazard assessment algorithm was carried out in retrospect for seven earthquakes (M8+) that had predictability in foreshock preparation. The evolution of the potential seismic hazard from 1 January 2020 to 1 June 2021 has been traced. It is concluded that precedent-based extrapolation assessments have prospects as a tool designed for the early detection and monitoring of potentially hazardous seismic activity.
Highlights
Our research is focused on assessing the predictive capabilities of the equation of Dynamics of Self-Developing Natural Processes (DSDNP equations) and developing algorithms for its practical use
As a result of processing the ECKCI, JMA and US Geological Survey (USGS) data, it was found that the predicted activation of the seismic energy flow precedes 721 out of 2082 earthquakes with
It was found that 116,700 (1553 ECKCI, 87,474 JMA and 27,673 USGS) precedents of these earthquakes fall into the band of acceptable errors when retrospectively extrapolating foreshock trends into the ‘future’
Summary
Our research is focused on assessing the predictive capabilities of the equation of Dynamics of Self-Developing Natural Processes (DSDNP equations) and developing algorithms for its practical use. Malyshev (one of the authors of this work) studied plastic deformations that preceded and accompanied the eruptions of Bezymyannyi Volcano in 1981–1984 [1]. These placative deformations were not accompanied by volcanic earthquakes. The absence of signs of an avalanche-like development indicated an upcoming calm (without climactic) eruption. Malyshev to successfully predict the directed blast of Bezymyannyi Volcano on 30 June 1985 [1,2,3], as well as a number of eruptions (with or without paroxysm) in 1986 to 1987 [1,3]
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