Abstract
There is a rapidly developing literature on risks that threaten the whole of humanity, or a large part of it. Discussion is increasingly turning to how such risks can be governed. This paper arises from a study of those involved the governance of risks from emerging technologies, examining the perceptions of global catastrophic risk within the relevant global policymaking community. Those who took part were either civil servants working for the UK government, U.S. Congress, the United Nations, and the European Commission, or cognate members of civil society groups and the private sector. Analysis of interviews identified four major themes: Scepticism; Realism; Influence; and Governance outside of Government. These themes provide evidence for the value of conceptualising the governance of global catastrophic risk as a unified challenge. Furthermore, they highlight the range of agents involved in governance of emerging technology and give reason to value reforms carried out sub-nationally.
Highlights
The growing literature on global catastrophic risks (‘GCR’) examines hazards that are ruinous, or terminal, to the whole of humanity
A whole; if there is value in finding ways to assess and compare risks that appear to be of a qualitatively different kind across technology and policy areas, there is a reason to develop GCR language. This route to change is likely to be only a part of the jigsaw, since our research suggests that such influence can be effective for tackling GCR governance failures of the first type described above, but is less likely to provide an effective route for tackling failures of the second type, namely those linked to macro-level difficulties with global governance and political structures of power
The research presented here demonstrates for the first time how interviews with those involved and close to policymaking around GCRs can shed critical new light on the nascent state of GCR governance
Summary
The growing literature on global catastrophic risks (‘GCR’) examines hazards that are ruinous, or terminal, to the whole of humanity. Despite its recent progress in understanding issues around the governance of emerging technology, this literature lacks empirical studies of the outlook of those who may influence it. We explore on the extent to which those involved in GCR governance perceive that such governance is or is not successful, and identify the sources of problems and potential remedies. This is of value in determining what is feasible, in getting a greater understanding of where unidentified issues exist, in seeing how proposals can best be executed, and in understanding what aspects of governance call for more research
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