Global Oil Market Forecasting Models

Abstract

The article analyzes the problems of modeling and forecasting the world oil market, and also provides an overview of approaches and models in this area. The key factors affecting the formation of oil prices are presented, and their relationship is examined. The forecasting models of the world oil market based on the use of econometric analysis methods and structural VAR models are considered. Another area is the use of game and behavioral models. Widely used models of market equilibrium analysis taking into account various market structures based on MPEC models. Of considerable practical interest are also methods that combine game models, methods of multi-agent modeling, and modeling based on expert information. The analysis presented in the work shows that in many cases the use of mathematical models to predict the global oil market is useful, it allows you to get closer to understanding the mechanisms of its functioning and the relationship of its parameters.