Global nuclear proliferation will unfold slowly

Abstract

Subject Prospects for nuclear proliferation after the Iran deal. Significance The deal between Iran and the P5+1 powers (five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany) resolves the immediate threat that Iran might develop nuclear weapons, but creates potential negative ripple effects. The deal legitimises Iran's possession of uranium enrichment technology for peaceful nuclear purposes, though the same technology could be used to produce nuclear bombs. Export-control regimes have sought to limit the spread of this technology, but following the deal, new countries may seek it as part of a nuclear 'hedging' strategy, creating a capability to build nuclear weapons if desired. Saudi Arabia is developing its own civilian nuclear programme, and has been rumoured to be interested in the acquisition of nuclear weapons if Iran gets them. Impacts South Korea, South Africa, United Arab Emirates and Egypt are other candidates for nuclear hedging. Israel's nuclear weapons, even though not officially stated, could drive others to develop nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction. Nuclear black markets could re-emerge if formal trade channels are not available.