Global models meet global policy: How can global and regional modellers connect with environmental policy makers? What has hindered them? What has helped?

Abstract

Global modelling has developed over the last two decades largely because of the needs of policymaking, yet it has not yet realized its full potential in assisting policymaking. While the first wave of global models in the 1970s had a clear influence on policy discourse, these models were eventually undermined by attacks on their scientific underpinning. The second wave of global models in the 1990s had a stronger scientific footing than the first wave because they were built on a much larger base of knowledge about the global system. Although the improved scientific credibility of global models has increased their use in policymaking, a more subtle yet important factor has been the direct contact of global model developers with policymakers. Taking an example from the field of climate policy, a global modelling team has conducted formal workshops with a group of international climate policymakers with the aim to increase the relevance of modeling activities to policy issues. This interaction has inspired policyrelevant uses of a global model (IMAGE 2) and spawned the development of a new policy concept ‘Safe Emission Corridors’, which has been discussed in the frame of international climate negotiations. A preliminary conclusion is that both improved scientific credibility and improved interaction between modelers and policymakers are critical ingredients for enhancing the policy-relevance of global models.