Global Missile Proliferation: Challenges and Solutions

Abstract

Developments in missile proliferation are analyzed, including the main drivers, trends, and actors. The increasing complexity of the global missile proliferation landscape is shown. They key areas of technological development are identified, as well as several types of missile proliferators, to substantiate the importance of missile proliferation in the context of international security. Existing and prospective mechanisms are discussed with respect to arms control, nonproliferation, and multilateral risk reduction measures. It is stressed that the existing mechanisms are aimed primarily at reducing the risks associated with creating delivery vehicles for weapons of mass destruction whereas the greatest importance is now attached to the potential use of conventionally armed missiles. It is proposed to concentrate efforts on “soft arms control” in order to lay a foundation for a gradual increase in controllability in the absence of real prospects for verifiable and intrusive multilateral measures.