Global methane emissions from coal mining to continue growing even with declining coal production

Abstract

This paper presents projections of global methane emissions from coal mining under different coal extraction scenarios and with increasing mining depth through 2100. The paper proposes an updated methodology for calculating fugitive emissions from coal mining, which accounts for coal extraction method, coal rank, and mining depth and uses evidence-based emissions factors. A detailed assessment shows that coal mining-related methane emissions in 2010 were higher than previous studies show. This study also uses a novel methodology for calculating methane emissions from abandoned coal mines and represents the first estimate of future global methane emissions from those mines. The results show that emissions from the growing population of abandoned mines increase faster than those from active ones. Using coal production data from six integrated assessment models, this study shows that by 2100 methane emissions from active underground mines increase by a factor of 4, while emissions from abandoned mines increase by a factor of 8. Abandoned mine methane emissions continue through the century even with aggressive mitigation actions.