GLOBAL MARKET OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS: CURRENT STATE AND PERSPECTIVES OF DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

The paper is devoted to the peculiarities and perspectives of the global petroleum market development. The peculiarities of supply and demand formation at the global market of petroleum products are investigated in the article. The balance of supply and demand at the petroleum market is determined. The paper outlines the peculiarities of pricing for petroleum products. The dynamics of price changes on the global petroleum market in the period of 2010-2020 is studied. The conclusion was made that there is a price volatility on the global petroleum market. An analysis of the dynamics and structure of the world petroleum production by regions revealed that the total output of oil has increased due to the development of new technologies and due to the increased efficiency of petroleum production. The performed forecasting made it possible to conclude that petroleum price is expected to increase in the coming two periods. That will allow to establish a balance between supply and demand at the petroleum products’ market. Accordingly, the equalization of supply and demand for petroleum products is forecasted (even despite the crisis in the world). The econometric method of economic analysis was applied in the paper. The authors constructed an additive model for time series data to predict the dynamics of prices on the global market of petroleum products. The model was designed based on 16 observations in the period of October 2016 – July 2020.