Global land-use intensity and anthropogenic emissions exhibit symbiotic and explosive behavior

Abstract

SummaryThe intensification of land use is accelerating and remains a threat to achieving environmental sustainability. Although prior literature identifies unsustainable demand for resources as crucial to ecosystem vitality, we highlight explosive behavior and indicators associated with changing global land-use intensity and emissions. We assess emission footprints, forestry, and agricultural land-use intensity across income groups. We find that long-term income growth above US$1005/capita has mitigation effects on emissions, whereas emissions stimulate the global expansion of land use for agricultural and forestry activities. Urban expansion has diminishing effects on agricultural lands in developed countries, which may alter future agricultural production and food consumption. The heterogeneous effects across countries demonstrate the need for domestic context, including cultural and historical factors, in assessing forest decline, agricultural expansion, and land-use intensity. The co-benefits of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) in developing economies are crucial to mitigating emissions while improving forest-dependent livelihoods.