Abstract
Subject Developments in the global iron ore market Significance In 2015, China's iron ore demand fell by 3.5% to 691 million tonnes (mt), contributing to a 40% drop in the commodity price. Spurred by Beijing's recent stimulus measures, prices have rebounded by 23% in 2016 thus far, triggering a surge in orders for basic construction materials (steel output reached a record 70.6 mt in March). Holdings of ore at China's ports have increased by 2.3% year-to-date, peaking at 97 mt on April 20, their highest level in a year. Impacts Global iron ore demand is projected to return to growth of 2% in 2017-19, but its increase will be outpaced by stronger supply growth. Oversupply will rise to 38 mt in 2017, before falling to 14mt in 2018, according to the World Steel Association. Backed by South Korea's POSCO, Australia's Roy Hill will increase production, adding 55 mt to global supply by early 2017. Iran will add 2.5 mt to annual pellet production this year and a further 15.6 mt in 2017. India is likely to scrap the 10% export duty on iron ore to bolster miners' position in global markets.
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