Abstract
Underlying sociopolitical factors have emerged as important determinants of wildlife population trends and the effectiveness of conservation action. Despite mounting research into the impacts of climate change on nature, there has been little consideration of the human context in which these impacts occur, particularly at the global scale. We investigate this in two ways. First, by modeling the climatic niches of terrestrial mammals and birds globally, we show that projected species loss under climate change is greatest in countries with weaker governance and lower Gross Domestic Product, with loss of mammal species projected to be greater in countries with lower CO2 emissions. Therefore, climate change impacts on species may be disproportionately significant in countries with lower capacity for effective conservation and lower greenhouse gas emissions, raising important questions of international justice. Second, we consider the redistribution of species in the context of political boundaries since the global importance of transboundary conservation under climate change is poorly understood. Under a high-emissions scenario, we find that 35% of mammals and 29% of birds are projected to have over half of their 2070 climatic niche in countries in which they are not currently found. We map these transboundary range shifts globally, identifying borders across which international coordination might most benefit conservation and where physical border barriers, such as walls and fences, may be an overlooked obstacle to climate adaptation. Our work highlights the importance of sociopolitical context and the utility of a supranational perspective for 21st century nature conservation.
Highlights
Underlying sociopolitical factors have emerged as important determinants of wildlife population trends and the effectiveness of conservation action
We found that loss of mammal species is projected to be greater in countries with lower per-capita CO2 emissions—the countries least responsible for climate change in the first place (Fig. 1 and SI Appendix, Fig. S1)
Our analysis has focused on mammals and birds, the implications of political borders and border barriers for nature conservation extend to other taxonomic groups, too
Summary
Global inequities and political borders challenge nature conservation under climate change. Under a high-emissions scenario, we find that 35% of mammals and 29% of birds are projected to have over half of their 2070 climatic niche in countries in which they are not currently found We map these transboundary range shifts globally, identifying borders across which international coordination might most benefit conservation and where physical border barriers, such as walls and fences, may be an overlooked obstacle to climate adaptation. The magnitude of climatic changes is projected to be greatest at higher latitudes [2], climate impacts on nature may be greater in tropical areas because these areas are more likely to see the emergence of novel climates [16] and are where species have narrower climatic niches, making them more sensitive to change [17] These global inequities in climate impacts on nature reignite questions surrounding the morality of climate inaction in developed nations, which have benefitted disproportionately from fossil fuel consumption—and which continue to benefit from global biodiversity conservation—but face fewer of the associated impacts and costs [18]. Our results further strengthen the case for substantial and urgent climate change mitigation action, which would minimize these inequities in climate impacts on nature (Fig. 1)
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