Abstract

Abstract It has been estimated that severe El Nino–related flooding and droughts in Africa, Latin America, North America, and Southeast Asia resulted in more than 22 000 lives lost and in excess of $36 billion in damages during 1997–98. As one of the most severe events this century, the 1997–98 El Nino was unique not only in terms of physical magnitude, but also in terms of human response. This response was made possible by recent advances in climate–observing and forecasting systems, creation and dissemination of forecast information by institutions such as the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, and individuals in climate–sensitive sectors willing to act on forecast information by incorporating it into their decision–making. The supporting link between the forecasts and their practical application was a product of efforts by several national and international organizations, and a primary focus of the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric...

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