Abstract
Mercury is a potent neurotoxin that poses health risks to the global population. Anthropogenic mercury emissions to the atmosphere are projected to decrease in the future due to enhanced policy efforts such as the Minamata Convention, a legally-binding international treaty entered into force in 2017. Here, we report the development of a comprehensive climate-atmosphere-land-ocean-ecosystem and exposure-risk model framework for mercury and its application to project the health effects of future atmospheric emissions. Our results show that the accumulated health effects associated with mercury exposure during 2010–2050 are $19 (95% confidence interval: 4.7–54) trillion (2020 USD) realized to 2050 (3% discount rate) for the current policy scenario. Our results suggest a substantial increase in global human health cost if emission reduction actions are delayed. This comprehensive modeling approach provides a much-needed tool to help parties to evaluate the effectiveness of Hg emission controls as required by the Minamata Convention.
Highlights
Mercury is a potent neurotoxin that poses health risks to the global population
We estimate that the global health impacts associated with MeHg exposure for the general population are $117 billion (2020 USD adjusted by purchasing power parity, PPP), contributed by 1.2 × 107 points of intelligence quotient (IQ) decrements (0.086 point per-fetus) and 29,000 deaths per year at present-day
The economic loss from fatal heart attack (FHA) is calculated based on a value of statistical life (VSL) approach, which is scaled by the PPP adjusted per-capita GDP value of individual countries[11]
Summary
Mercury is a potent neurotoxin that poses health risks to the global population. Anthropogenic mercury emissions to the atmosphere are projected to decrease in the future due to enhanced policy efforts such as the Minamata Convention, a legally-binding international treaty entered into force in 2017. Our study estimates the health risk associated with MeHg exposure based on food intake inventory and food MeHg concentrations for individual countries at a global scale.
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