Global future potential evapotranspiration signal using Penman-Monteith and Hargreaves-Samani method by latitudes based on CMIP6

Abstract

This study estimated global potential evapotranspiration (PET) using six climate variables of 14 CMIP6 GCMs at different latitudes of both hemispheres. Hargreaves-Samani (HS) and Penman-Monteith (PM) were used to estimate historical and future PETs. To evaluate the historical reproducibility of the six climate variables of the CMIP6 GCMs, five evaluation indicators were used and compared with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Based on the evaluation metrics, the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) was used to calculate the weights for Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) for each band of latitude. After that, the projected annual and seasonal PETs were estimated for the near (2031–2065) and far (2066–2100) futures. The change rate of PET for five timeframes (Annual, Spring, Summer, Fall, and Winter) was calculated for four socioeconomic shared pathways (SSPs). As a result, the PM's PET and HS's PET for all scenarios showed the highest increased signals at 75.5° ∼ 90° in the northern hemisphere (NH) compared to the other latitudes. Especially, the change in the HS of SSP5–8.5 was increased by 26.4% in NH latitude 45.5° to 60° (NL4) compared to the base period. Furthermore, the changes in PET of PM and HS for December, January, and February (DJF) and September, October, and November (SON), and June, July, and August (JJA) lead to remarkably high increases in both hemispheres, irrespective of the level of the emission scenario, completely ignoring the seasonal water cycle in the historical period (1950–2014).