Global financial cycles since 1880

Abstract

We analyse global aggregate and segment-specific cycles across credit, house prices, equity prices, and interest rates in 17 economies over 130 years using a time-varying dynamic factor model. We show that global financial cycles have gained relevance over time. For equity prices, they now constitute the main driver of fluctuations in most countries. Global cycles in credit and housing have become more pronounced and protracted since the 1980s, and their relevance has increased for a sub-group of financially open and developed economies. Panel regressions show that a country’s susceptibility to global financial cycles tends to increase with financial openness and financial integration, the extent of mortgage-related lending, and the efficiency of stock markets. Understanding changes in global co-movement over time and its heterogeneous role across countries matters for the design of financial stabilization policies.