Global Financial Crisis's Impact on the Credit Risk of Logistics Companies: Comparative Analysis between China and US with KMV Model

Abstract

In order to investigate the global financial crisis’s impact on logistics industry quantitatively, this paper selects 10 logistics listed companies respectively from China and US stock market as samples, calculates the default distances of the companies based on KMV model which is first proposed by US KMV company, analyzes the trend of credit risk change from the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2009. The results show the financial crisis has a severe impact on the credit risk of logistics companies and KMV model is an effective tool for measuring the credit risk of logistics companies. Furthermore, on average, the trend of credit risk of logistics companies does not coincide with the Gross Domestic Product’s respond to the financial crisis in time completely. The trend of credit risk during the crisis between China and US are not quite the same, and appetites of the two nation’s companies are also different. Finally, authors propose some suggestions about how to manage credit risk and how to respond to the financial crisis for logistics companies and other investors.