Global Extremes in Burnt Area

Abstract

In recent years, the world has witnessed a surge in "extreme" fire events, with notable occurrences in regions like California and Australia, where their disproportionate impacts have been evident. However, the term "extreme fire" lacks a standardized definition, leading to a diverse and ambiguous usage. To address this, we utilize the MODIS burnt area record spanning 2002-2022 to systematically identify extreme fire years across diverse ecoregions worldwide. Our analysis detects most of the reported events in developed regions, but also additional extreme fire occurrences in less developed areas. While global fire models are commonly employed to estimate the overall impact of fires on a global scale, their ability to accurately represent extreme events remains uncertain. To assess this, we compare extreme events identified in the MODIS time series with simulations from six global fire models participating in FireMIP. The results reveal variations in model performance, with some models accurately simulating extreme events in burnt area while others exhibit limitations. Our findings highlight biases in reporting on extreme events and underscore the importance of a quantitative identification framework. Additionally, our analysis suggests that certain global fire models hold promise for studying extreme fire events. This research contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of global fire dynamics and impacts.