Abstract
Insufficient data exist for accurate estimation of global nutrient supplies. Commonly used global datasets contain key weaknesses: 1) data with global coverage, such as the FAO food balance sheets, lack specific information about many individual foods and no information on micronutrient supplies nor heterogeneity among subnational populations, while 2) household surveys provide a closer approximation of consumption, but are often not nationally representative, do not commonly capture many foods consumed outside of the home, and only provide adequate information for a few select populations. Here, we attempt to improve upon these datasets by constructing a new model—the Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS) model—to estimate nutrient availabilities for 23 individual nutrients across 225 food categories for thirty-four age-sex groups in nearly all countries. Furthermore, the model provides historical trends in dietary nutritional supplies at the national level using data from 1961–2011. We determine supplies of edible food by expanding the food balance sheet data using FAO production and trade data to increase food supply estimates from 98 to 221 food groups, and then estimate the proportion of major cereals being processed to flours to increase to 225. Next, we estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups (ages 20+, both sexes) in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed. Finally, we match food supplies with nutrient densities from regional food composition tables to estimate nutrient supplies, running Monte Carlo simulations to find the range of potential nutrient supplies provided by the diet. To validate our new method, we compare the GENuS estimates of nutrient supplies against independent estimates by the USDA for historical US nutrition and find very good agreement for 21 of 23 nutrients, though sodium and dietary fiber will require further improvement.
Highlights
Major trends in human nutrition are challenging to track at regional or global scales due to a lack of reliable and accessible data
We estimate intake among twenty-six demographic groups in each country by using data taken from the Global Dietary Database, which uses nationally representative surveys to relate national averages of food consumption to individual age and sex-groups; for children and adolescents where GDD data does not yet exist, average calorie-adjusted amounts are assumed
Unlike the FAO and Global Expanded Nutrient Supply (GENuS), the USDA has data on food supplies for over 400 individual commodities that are chosen to record the breadth of the US diet; of the 225 foods included in GENuS model, Americans only eat more than a gram per year of ~140 of them, and they include broad categories (e.g., “Milk” or “Tomatoes”) which include many processed forms
Summary
Major trends in human nutrition are challenging to track at regional or global scales due to a lack of reliable and accessible data. After estimating the total food supply by type, we converted total commodity weight to edible weight This correction mainly applied to fruits, vegetables, nuts, seeds, and animal products for which the FAO values include the weight of non-edible portions such as bones, shells, and peels. Unlike the FAO and GENuS, the USDA has data on food supplies for over 400 individual commodities that are chosen to record the breadth of the US diet; of the 225 foods included in GENuS model, Americans only eat more than a gram per year of ~140 of them, and they include broad categories (e.g., “Milk” or “Tomatoes”) which include many processed forms. Our estimates of food and nutrient supplies can only be as accurate as the available data, which may be compromised in developing countries with poorer statistical accounting
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