Global evaluation of model agreement and uncertainty in terrestrial water storage simulations from ISIMIP 2b framework

Abstract

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) is a vital component in global hydrologic cycle with direct linkage to water resources availability and hydrologic extremes. Assessing the uncertainty in TWS projections are fundamentally important for developing counter-measures against impacts of climate change on water resources and disasters. This study presents a global-scale evaluation of model agreement and uncertainty in TWS anomaly (TWSA) simulations within the ISIMIP 2b framework by comparison with the 2006–2016 Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data. The total 24 members of ISIMIP2b ensembles considered here include the permutations of 6 global water models (GWMs: CLM4.5, H08, LPLmL, MATSIRO, PCR-GLOBWB, WaterGAP2) simulations forced by 4 global climate models (GCMs: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC5) under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 scenarios. Results show that the fraction of global land area with the same sign between the ISIMIP2b ensemble mean and GRACE TWSA is 47.5 % and 47.3 % under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, respectively. The ensemble mean reproduces the negative (positive) TWSA in southern North America, southwestern Asia, northern and central Africa (central South America and northern Europe) under both scenarios. More than 50 % of ensemble members agree with GRACE TWS better in the sign of drying trend than wetting trend over the global land. The interannual TWS variations among ensemble members show better agreement in North America and Europe than other continents. More than 80 % of ensemble members simulate larger (smaller) TWS seasonal amplitude than GRACE in North America, Europe, and Asia (South America, Africa, and Australia). GWM is found to be the main source of uncertainty in TWS simulations in North America, Europe, and Asia (>55 %), while GCM uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty source in South America, Africa, and Australia (>45 %).