Global estimation of effect on life expectancy at age of 60 by particulate air pollution

Abstract

TPS 682: Long-term health effects of air pollutants 2, Exhibition Hall, Ground floor, August 27, 2019, 3:00 PM - 4:30 PM Background: Previous studies evaluating the association between particulate matter less than 2.5μm in diameter (PM2.5) and life expectancy were conducted in single country assuming linear relationship. In our study, we evaluated the association using global country level data accounting for non-linear relationship between PM2.5 concentration and life expectancy. Methods: A total of 17 years (from 2000 to 2016) of country level population weighted PM2.5 concentration and life expectancy at age of 60 were archived from Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 database and World Health Organization Global Health Observatory. A generalized estimating equation with a compound symmetry covariance structure was used to evaluate the linear association between reduction in annual PM2.5 concentration and increase of life expectancy. Non-parametric analysis using generalized additive mixed model and piecewise linear regression was conducted for repeatedly measured data analysis with non-linear assumption. Results: A 17 years of data from 176 countries were used in our analysis. With a linear assumption, 10μg/m3 reduction in annual PM2.5 concentration was associated with 0.34 years (95%CI, 0.20, 0.49) of increase in life expectancy. By assuming non-linear relationship, life expectancy increased by 0.72 years (95%CI: 0.49, 0.96) per 10μg/m3 reduction on 0-24.0μg/m3 PM2.5 concentration range. Life expectancy increased by 0.01 years (95%CI: -0.06, 0.08) per 10μg/m3 reduction on PM2.5 range above 24.0μg/m3. Conclusion: There was non-linear relationship between country level population weighted annual PM2.5 concentration and life expectancy at age of 60. Life expectancy gain are expected with decrease of PM2.5 exposure even in very low PM2.5 concentration ranges. Future individual and multi-level studies are needed to confirm our ecologic study findings.