Global estimates of ambient NO2 concentrations and long-term health effects during 2000-2019

Abstract

High concentrations of ambient NO2 causes serious air pollution and could also pose great threats to human health. However, the long-term trends (20-year) and potential health effects of ambient NO2 exposure globally still shows high uncertainties. In this work, the field measurements, satellite dataset, GEOS-Chem output, and multiple geographical covariates were incorporated into the multi-stage model to investigate the global evolutions of ambient NO2 during 2000-2019. The results indicated that the cross-validation (CV) R2 values of ambient NO2 based on multi-stage model displayed satisfied performance (R2 = 0.78), which was superior to the individual model. Besides, the out-of-bag R2 was 0.75, which suggested the multi-stage model showed the better transferability. At the spatial scale, the NO2 concentrations followed the order of China (16.9 ± 9.0 μg/m3) > India (15.5 ± 5.6 μg/m3) > United States (10.7 ± 5.6 μg/m3) > Europe (7.7 ± 4.5 μg/m3), which was in consistent with the anthropogenic NOx emission. At the temporal scale, the ambient NO2 levels in China experienced persistent increases (0.29 μg/m3/year) during 2000-2013, whereas they showed slight decreases (-0.23 μg/m3/year) during 2013-2019. The ambient NO2 levels in the United States experienced continuous decreases during 2000-2019 (-0.20 μg/m3/year), while both of India and Europe remained relatively stable. Long-term NO2 exposure inevitably increased premature mortalities. The global premature all-cause mortalities associated with the excessive NO2 exposure increased from 288,169 (95% CI: 43,650, 527,971) to 461,301 (95% CI: 69,973, 843,996) in the past 20 years. This study would provide sufficient policy support for future ambient NO2 mitigation.