Abstract

We provide a risk-based explanation for the excess returns of two widely-known currency speculation strategies: carry and momentum trades. We construct a global equity correlation factor and show that it explains the variation in average excess returns of both these strategies. The global correlation factor has a robust negative price of beta risk in the FX market. We also present a multi-currency model which illustrates why heterogeneous exposures to our correlation factor explain the excess returns of both portfolios.

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