Global Equity and Sustainable Earth Resource Consumption Requires Super-Efficient Extraction-Conservation-Recycling and Ubiquitous, Inexpensive Energy

Abstract

For more than 3.5 billion years, the Earth's biosphere maintained a dynamic equilibrium with solar energy and natural materials derived from the near-surface lithosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Beginning about 10,000 years ago, however, settled agriculture allowed the division of labor, rise of civilizations, and utilization of terrestrial resources at rates greater than those of replenishment. Demographic estimates put our numbers at 9-10 billion by 2050. About 85 percent of humanity now resides in the Developing Nations, and this proportion is growing. Due to the global information network, this is the first world generation to become acutely aware of the high standard of living confined to the Industrialized Nations. The grossly inequitable distribution of wealth, due partly to Earth resource exploitation, is resented by many people of the Developing Nations; this situation is politically destabilizing and must be ameliorated. But can 10 billion people be afforded comfortable lives without destroying the planetary carrying capacity and habitability through exhaustion of the Earth's natural capital? Humans now control a third of the terrestrial net primary biological production, and our share is increasing. Adverse environmental impacts include increasing air and water pollution; accelerating loss of biodiversity, ecosystem services, topsoil, fisheries, and tropical rain forests; and global warming + sea-level rise. Prospects for the intricate web of life are ominous. Modern societies are sustained by the extraction of fossil energy, water, and other Earth materials far exceeding planetary renewal rates. Island communities provide sobering examples of the collapse of cultures that have overexploited and devastated their environments. Thus, humanity must reach a steady-state stewardship of the planet involving super-efficient, universal mineral resource recovery and conservation while preserving ecosystem integrity. Utilization of renewable resources at or below recharge rates and near-total recycling of nonrenewable Earth materials can only be accomplished employing widely available, inexpensive energy. Unfortunately, the Second Law of Thermodynamics dictates that a portion of the mineral resources and most of the spent energy are irretrievably lost. Scientific research-generated technological advances providing production and ubiquitous availability of low-environmentalimpact, cheap energy will be essential to preserving anything approaching steady-state resource utilization. Assuming technical, economic, and political success in achieving global equity and prosperity for 10 billion people (a very large order indeed!), the world ecosystem will be severely compromised through increased human consumption of the Earth's mineral resources. Biospheric equilibrium and ecosystem sustainability—the very carrying capacity of the planet—is already at risk, and this risk is increasing. Without doubt, the greatest long-term challenge facing humanity involves the preservation of a functioning, viable biosphere.