Global Epidemiology of First 90 Days into COVID-19 Pandemic: Disease Incidence, Prevalence, Case Fatality Rate and Their Association with Population Density, Urbanisation and Elderly Population

Shivam Gupta,Kamalesh Kumar Patel,Abha Mangal,Shobana Sivaraman

doi:10.1177/0972063420932762

Shivam Gupta, Kamalesh Kumar Patel + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.1177/0972063420932762

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Abstract

As the COVID-19 pandemic marches exponentially, epidemiological data is of high importance to analyse the current situation and guide intervention strategies. This study analyses the epidemiological data of COVID-19 from 17 countries, representing 85 per cent of the total cases within first 90 days of lockdown in Wuhan, China. It follows a population-level observational study design and includes countries with 20,000 cases (or higher) as of 21 April 2020. We sourced the data for these 17 countries from worldometers. info, a digital platform being used by several media and reputed academic institutions worldwide. We calculated the prevalence, incidence, case fatality rate and trends in the epidemiology of COVID-19, and its correlation with population density, urbanisation and elderly population. The analysis represents 85 per cent ( N = 2,183,661) of all cases within the first 90 days of the pandemic. Across the analysed period, the burden of the pandemic primarily focused on high- and middle-income countries of Asia, Europe and North America. While the total number of cases and deaths are highest in USA, the prevalence, incidence and case fatality rates are higher in the European countries. The prevalence and incidence vary widely among countries included in the analysis, and the number of cases per million and the case fatality rate are correlated with the proportion of the elderly population and to a lesser extent with the proportion of the urban population.

Highlights

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has swiftly created a cataclysm for the human civilisation (Wu et al, 2020)
As per WHO situation report, out of 17 countries, cases reported in 12 countries were attributed to community transmission, while those in three countries (China, India and Russia) were a cluster of cases and two (Spain and Portugal) were still pending to report (Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report—92, 2020)
Our findings indicate the burden of the pandemic during this early phase primarily focused on high- and middle-income countries of Asia, Europe and North America

Summary

Introduction

The COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has swiftly created a cataclysm for the human civilisation (Wu et al, 2020). A total of 2,397,217 confirmed cases and 162,956 deaths have been reported worldwide due to COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report—92, 2020). Wang et al, 2020) The primary symptoms are fever, dry cough and difficulty in breathing (Rothan & Byrareddy, 2020a). While the clinical severity of disease seems to be higher among the elderly and the immunocompromised, the socio-economic fallout is falling more severely on the poor and the marginalised groups (Harapan et al, 2020; Rothan & Byrareddy, 2020b) The current lack of any successful treatment or viable vaccine is threatening to make the negative effects more prolonged, thereby delaying recovery While the clinical severity of disease seems to be higher among the elderly and the immunocompromised, the socio-economic fallout is falling more severely on the poor and the marginalised groups (Harapan et al, 2020; Rothan & Byrareddy, 2020b) The current lack of any successful treatment or viable vaccine is threatening to make the negative effects more prolonged, thereby delaying recovery (L. Wang et al, 2020)

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