Abstract
China has an ever-increasing thirst for milk, with a predicted 3.2-fold increase in demand by 2050 compared to the production level in 2010. What are the environmental implications of meeting this demand, and what is the preferred pathway? We addressed these questions by using a nexus approach, to examine the interdependencies of increasing milk consumption in China by 2050 and its global impacts, under different scenarios of domestic milk production and importation. Meeting China's milk demand in a business as usual scenario will increase global dairy-related (China and the leading milk exporting regions) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 35% (from 565 to 764Tg CO2eq ) and land use for dairy feed production by 32% (from 84 to 111 million ha) compared to 2010, while reactive nitrogen losses from the dairy sector will increase by 48% (from 3.6 to 5.4Tg nitrogen). Producing all additional milk in China with current technology will greatly increase animal feed import; from 1.9 to 8.5Tg for concentrates and from 1.0 to 6.2Tg for forage (alfalfa). In addition, it will increase domestic dairy related GHG emissions by 2.2 times compared to 2010 levels. Importing the extra milk will transfer the environmental burden from China to milk exporting countries; current dairy exporting countries may be unable to produce all additional milk due to physical limitations or environmental preferences/legislation. For example, the farmland area for cattle-feed production in New Zealand would have to increase by more than 57% (1.3 million ha) and that in Europe by more than 39% (15 million ha), while GHG emissions and nitrogen losses would increase roughly proportionally with the increase of farmland in both regions. We propose that a more sustainable dairy future will rely on high milk demanding regions (such as China) improving their domestic milk and feed production efficiencies up to the level of leading milk producing countries. This will decrease the global dairy related GHG emissions and land use by 12% (90Tg CO2eq reduction) and 30% (34 million ha land reduction) compared to the business as usual scenario, respectively. However, this still represents an increase in total GHG emissions of 19% whereas land use will decrease by 8% when compared with 2010 levels, respectively.
Highlights
The increased international trade of agricultural products has received much attention recently due to the impacts of production on land use, deforestation and associated biodiversity loss, impaired nutrient cycling, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
|3 following the Shared Socio-economic Pathway 1 (SSP1) storyline, which focuses on technological improvements: (i) Dairy Production Improvement (DPI) - assuming that productivity and manure management in China can reach the current level of the leading milk exporting countries by 2050; and (ii) Farming Systems Improvement (FSI) – toward crop-dairy integration and forage-based systems with increased productivity of forages, building on scenario DPI
We show for China that producing additional milk domestically will reduce the environmental performance of global dairy production, for example, increase in GHG and Nr emissions and feed import
Summary
The increased international trade of agricultural products has received much attention recently due to the impacts of production on land use, deforestation and associated biodiversity loss, impaired nutrient cycling, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Consumption of animal products is driven by culture, population growth and prosperity (gross domestic production, GDP), with high GDP countries consuming on average higher amounts per capita (Tilman, Balzer, & Hill, 2011; Tilman & Clark, 2014). The impact of China’s thirst for milk related to resource demands, climate change, eutrophication, and biodiversity loss need to be predicted so pathways for a more sustainable solution can be mapped China is facing both food security and water security challenges as well as vast environmental challenges, which underpin the importance of researching alternative future projections (Liu & Yang, 2012; Piao et al, 2010). |3 following the Shared Socio-economic Pathway 1 (SSP1) storyline, which focuses on technological improvements: (i) Dairy Production Improvement (DPI) - assuming that productivity and manure management in China can reach the current level of the leading milk exporting countries by 2050; and (ii) Farming Systems Improvement (FSI) – toward crop-dairy integration and forage-based systems with increased productivity of forages, building on scenario DPI
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
