Abstract
After the global crisis of 2008–2009, the world economy entered the era of restructuring. This article focuses on the risks that a new leader will face in the process of shaping the world economy. The methods employed in the research include big data processing of continuous change and the results of the symmetric macroeconomic analysis based on the statistics collected by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), The Word Bank (WB), Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Central banks and Treasuries. The study results proved that the recessionary processes, their depth and global nature, are caused by a combination of world financial system crises and general civilization problems. These new systemic risks for the world economy might result in new global crises that will limit the resources of international financial institutions for sustainable development. Besides, for most banks these crises will mean shifting a big share of derivatives to the off-balance liabilities, using Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) in deals, followed by an increase in state and corporate debts, trade wars, a slowdown of economic development in China, and widening contradictions between global and national finances. Regular research and systematization have developed certain guidelines for the global economic restructuring process. First of all, it is recommended on the base of interstate compromises to focus on international agreements to ensure a solid foundation for global finance. On the basis of the comparative analysis carried out for the USA, China and other counties, it was made clear that no one leader in world economy in 21st century views the world reserve as based on the currency of one country only. Instead, there will be a slow transition to using Special Drawing Rights (SDR) with a basket from 15–20 currencies G20.
Highlights
The global crisis of 2008–2009 and long post-crisis recession have raised questions about the future of the world economy
The global financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009 and a long post-crisis recession have raised a lot of questions for world economics, monetary authorities, international economic institutions, and businesses about the future of the world economy and the structure of global finance in the XXI century
Post-crisis recession and many problems of modern global economy result from the global crisis, and are viewed as combinations, on the one hand, of failures of separate elements of a financial system, and, on the other hand, of transition to technologies 4.0 and common problems of the world economy
Summary
The global crisis of 2008–2009 and long post-crisis recession have raised questions about the future of the world economy. This future depends on the interaction of the world economy and world politics, the directions of their development and the nature of interference. The history of the last decade showed that modern civilization is in a general crisis. It covers the economy, policy, culture, ecology, and in general, the human. Thinking of the crisis of civilization, we address the reasons and the nature of the global crisis of 2008–2009 and the decade of post-crisis recession again
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