Abstract
The new quality of globalization, which has emerged in the last decade and encompasses drastic changes in the economic, political and technological spheres, gives rise to a number of phenomena that violate the traditional logic of historical progress. One of them is the metamorphosis of the world economic cyclicity that emerged during the global 2020 economic crisis and led to a radical change in its nature, driving forces and regulatory mechanisms. The paper reveals the prerequisites for the crisis caused by traditional and emerging factors and proves its pandemic nature, which manifests itself, on one hand, in the synchronization of national business cycles, and on the other – in the integrative mutual influence of its political, institutional and environmental components. It has been proven that a particularly destructive role in the global regulatory mechanism was played by the “overlap” in space and time of the economic crisis and the health crisis provoked by the coronavirus pandemic. This requires an urgent systematic reform of global countercyclical management institutions based on a gestalt paradigm, which is qualitatively different in principles, goals and tools from the existing mechanisms for managing national economies and multinational enterprises. Scenario forecasts of the post-pandemic future of the world economy through overcoming the growing disintegration and deglobalization trends are outlined.
Highlights
Humanity entered 2021 with a sense of great anxiety and uncertainty due to the unpredictability of the political, economic, and socio-humanitarian situation in the world against the background of simultaneous aggravation of environmental, institutional, demographic and information and ideological crises
These states, due to deep monetary and financial inte- industries are crucial in the implementation of gration into the world economic system, open- the scientific and technological revolution 4.0 and ness of foreign trade and participation in interna- the formation of the post-industrial technological tional investment processes (Inaba, 2020), usual- method of production (Deloitte, 2017), and therely demonstrate the highest sensitivity to cyclical fore will determine the international competitivefluctuations in the global environment
Even if medium-term inflation targets are the national and international levels synergy has set at zero interest rates, the economy can devel- mainly a functional orientation (economic-politiop according to various scenarios (Figure 5), and cal crisis, social-political crisis, banking-debt-sysdifferences in the scale of the regulatory effect will temic crisis), at the global level it receives determine the effectiveness of government coun- qualitatively new formats of contradictions in the tercyclical management, national policies and system “Man – nature – economy – technology
Summary
Humanity entered 2021 with a sense of great anxiety and uncertainty due to the unpredictability of the political, economic, and socio-humanitarian situation in the world against the background of simultaneous aggravation of environmental, institutional, demographic and information and ideological crises. There is an urgent need to develop extraordinary adaptive concepts of economic behavior in the context of global shocks, as well as to introduce non-cyclical management of non-traditional anti-crisis stabilizers that can mitigate the effect of anthropogenic and man-made threats, ensuring an appropriate level of security protection of human life. The anti-cyclical pandemic crisis management tools implemented by national governments during the crisis were not effective enough due to the predominant use of purely monetary mechanisms by countries (debt moratorium, loan guarantee, financial assistance, interest rate reduction, tax burden easing) (ArbatliSaxegaard & Muneer, 2020). Countercyclical management is complicated by the uncertain and hard-to-predict nature of the crisis, the duration, the degree of impact on the global political and economic balance and national economies, the parameters of the world order and the ratio of country forces
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