Abstract
An epidemiological model is proposed and studied to understand the transmission dynamics and prevalence of HCV infection in China. Theoretical analysis indicates that the basic reproduction numberR0provides a threshold value determining whether the disease dies out or not. Two Lyapunov functions are constructed to prove the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free and the endemic equilibria, respectively. Based on data reported by the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China, the basic reproduction number is estimated as approximatelyR0=1.9897, which is much less than that for the model when a treatment strategy is not considered. An ever-increasing HCV infection is predicted in the near future. Numerical simulations, performed to investigate the potential effect of antiviral treatment, show that increasing the treatment cure rate and enlarging the treatment rate for patients at the chronic stage remain effective in reducing the number of new infections and the equilibrium prevalence. The finding suggests that treatment measures are significantly beneficial for disease control in terms of reducing new infections and, in particular, more attention should be paid to treatment for patients at the chronic stage.
Highlights
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) has been considered as a leading cause of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and is becoming a major and growing global health problem [1, 2]
It is interesting to note that the prevalence of HCV infection in China (Figure 3) is estimated as 0.51% in 2013 and 0.58% in 2014, which is in good agreement with the cross-sectional study [5]
In order to understand the prevalence of HCV infection in China based on the reported data [6] and examine the role that treatment plays in the transmission dynamics, we proposed a mathematical model which includes realistic features of HCV transmission such as treatment and partial immunity
Summary
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) has been considered as a leading cause of liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma and is becoming a major and growing global health problem [1, 2]. HCV is an enveloped single-stranded RNA virus in the Flaviviridae family and mutates so rapidly that no vaccine is currently available [3]. The spread of HCV mainly results from blood-to-blood contact through blood transfusions, intravenous drug use (IDU), and the use of inadequately sterilized or unsterilized medical equipment. According to the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates [4], nearly 3% of the world’s population (more than 170 million) has been infected with HCV. It is urgently necessary to understand the present epidemic situation and to provide suggestions on how to control HCV infections
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