Global cultivation of wheat crops induces considerable shifts in the range and niche of species relative to their wild progenitors

Abstract

Species’ range and niche play key roles in understanding ecological and biogeographical patterns, especially in projecting global biotic homogenization and potential distribution patterns of species under global change scenarios. However, few studies have investigated the ability of crop cultivation to influence potential range sizes and niche shifts of species. Wheat and its wild progenitors share the same origin and evolutionary history, and thus provide an excellent system to explore this topic. Using ensembled ecological niche models and niche dynamic models, we studied the potential range sizes of wheat and its wild progenitors, as well as their niche dynamics. Our results showed that wheat had larger range size and niche breadth than its wild progenitors, suggesting that wheat cultivation is a more powerful driver of range and niche expansion than natural niche evolution. Additionally, wheat and its wild progenitors occupied different niche positions, and the former did not conserve the niches inherited from the latter, implying that wheat cultivation considerably induces niche shifts. The niche dynamics between wheat and its wild progenitors were not only closely associated with cultivation but were also modified by the niche conservatism of its wild progenitors. In contrast to most invasive plants, wheat, as a global staple crop species, did not conserve the niche space inherited from its wild progenitors, suggesting that compared with most plant invasions, cultivation may have a stronger effect on niche shifts. Therefore, global niche shifts induced by crop cultivation need much more attention, though the underlying mechanisms require further study.