Abstract
In daily life, we make decisions that are associated with probabilistic outcomes (e.g., the chance of rain today). People search for and utilize information that validly predicts an outcome (i.e., we look for dark clouds to indicate the possibility of rain). In the current study (N = 107), we present a two-stage learning task that examines how participants learn and utilize predictive information within a probabilistic learning environment. In the first stage, participants select one of three cues that gives predictive information about the outcome of the second stage. Participants then use this information to predict the outcome in stage two, for which they receive feedback. Critically, only one of the three cues in stage one gives valid predictive information about the outcome in stage two. Participants must differentiate the valid from non-valid cues and select this cue on subsequent trials in order to inform their prediction of the outcome in stage two. The validity of this predictive information, however, is reinforced with varying levels of probabilistic feedback (i.e., 75, 85, 95, 100%). A second manipulation involved changing the consistency of the predictive information in stage one and the outcome in stage two. The results show that participants, with higher levels of probabilistic feedback, learned to utilize the valid cue. In inconsistent task conditions, however, participants were significantly less successful in utilizing higher validity cues. We interpret this result as implying that learning in probabilistic categorization is based on developing a representation of the task that allows for goal-directed action.
Highlights
When searching for resources, people are often confronted with an exploitation-exploration dilemma
In addition to other factors, a variety of research fields in cognitive psychology investigating search behavior, such as associative learning, categorisation, and decision-making, have identified uncertainty (Daw et al, 2005, 2006) as a key factor that influence the adoption of an exploitation or exploration strategy
We found that participants in the inconsistent condition were less successful in utilizing the valid box than in the consistent condition especially at higher validity levels
Summary
When searching for resources (e.g., time, food, money, information), people are often confronted with an exploitation-exploration dilemma. Rieskamp and Otto (2006) showed that decisions were based on attributes with the highest validity that discriminated the two companies (e.g., company A is superior to company B on efficiency) This indicates that participants utilize cues that are highly predictive of the desired outcome at the expense of other cues. Little and Lewandowsky (2009) showed that learning a probabilistic task resulted in a broadening of selective attention that improved recall of the attended attributes. In their Experiment 2, participants classified stimuli varying along four perceptual features (X, Y, Z, and C). Learning in the inconsistent condition may have impaired relative to the consistent condition
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