Global Crisis and Economic Fundamentals: Its Impact on Foreign Direct Investment in ASEAN Countries

Abstract

Foreign direct investment has an important role in the running of a country's economy. This study aims to analyze the role of macroeconomic fundamentals consisting of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), interest rates, exchange rates, and exports in influencing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the ASEAN 6 region (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnamese). The data used are from 1990-2019 sourced from the World Bank and UNCTAD. The method used is panel data regression and time series with the best model selection, namely the Random Effect Model. The results of panel data analysis show that GDP, interest rates, exchange rates, and exports are the determinants of FDI in ASEAN 6 with a significant probability value. The positive direction coefficient is indicated by the GDP and exchange rate variables, while interest rates and exports indicate a negative direction coefficient. The results of the time-series data confirm that each country has similar results in the panel data analysis, but interest rates in Malaysia have the largest negative effect on FDI in Malaysia. Meanwhile, the exchange rate and exports contributed positively with the largest coefficient for Indonesia. The 1998 and 2008 economic crises were also found to have a negative impact on FDI but not significantly in some countries.