Global climate, El Niño, and militarized fisheries disputes in the East and South China Seas

Abstract

Scientists and policymakers are concerned the effects of climate change will give rise to more militarized conflict over ocean fisheries. These concerns are especially high in contested ocean territories like the East and South China Seas. However, the past effects of global climate for militarized fisheries disputes (MFDs) have not been extensively studied. We assess the effect of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), an ocean-atmosphere warming/cooling cycle measured by sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific, on the onset of MFDs among East and South China Sea-adjacent countries. We find strong effects, with El Niño associated with a higher probability of MFD onset. We conclude with preliminary conclusions and pathways for future research.