Global Climate Change and Food Security in South Asia: An Adaptation and Mitigation Framework

Abstract

South Asia is home to nearly 22% of the world’s population, including 40% of the world’s poor. Agriculture plays a critical role in terms of employment and livelihood security for a large majority of people in all countries of the region. The region is prone to climatic extremes, which regularly impact agricultural production and farmers’ livelihood. Himalayan glaciers, a major source of water for the rivers in the Indo-Gangetic plains, are projected to significantly recede in future that could affect food and livelihood security of millions of people in Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, India and Bangladesh. Climate change is further projected to cause a 10–40% loss in crop production in the region by the end of the century. The increased climatic variability in future would further increase production variability. Producing enough food for the increasing population in a background of reducing resources in a changing climate scenario, while minimizing environmental degradation is a challenging task. Simple adaptation strategies such as changes in planting dates and varieties could help in reducing impacts of climate change to a limited extent. A Regional Adaptation and Mitigation Framework for South Asia is proposed that could assist the region in increasing its adaptive capacity to climate change. This includes assisting farmers in coping with current climatic risks, intensifying food production systems, improving land, water and forests management, enabling policies and regional cooperation, and strengthening research in critical areas. South Asian agriculture is a significant source of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, primarily due to methane emission from rice paddies, enteric fermentation in ruminant animals, and nitrous oxides from application of manures and fertilizers to soils. While a considerable fraction of this is inevitable, some reduction in emissions could be obtained by midseason drainage or alternate drying in irrigated rice, increasing nitrogen use efficiency and soil carbon, and improvements in livestock diet. Clear inclusion of agricultural GHG mitigation options in future international agreements would lead to improved soil fertility, higher income for the farmers, and food security.