Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century

Behzad Asadieh,Nir Y Krakauer

doi:10.5194/hess-21-5863-2017

Abstract

Abstract. Global warming is expected to intensify the Earth's hydrological cycle and increase flood and drought risks. Changes over the 21st century under two warming scenarios in different percentiles of the probability distribution of streamflow, and particularly of high and low streamflow extremes (95th and 5th percentiles), are analyzed using an ensemble of bias-corrected global climate model (GCM) fields fed into different global hydrological models (GHMs) provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) to understand the changes in streamflow distribution and simultaneous vulnerability to different types of hydrological risk in different regions. In the multi-model mean under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, 37 % of global land areas experience an increase in magnitude of extremely high streamflow (with an average increase of 24.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of flooding in those regions. On the other hand, 43 % of global land areas show a decrease in the magnitude of extremely low streamflow (average decrease of 51.5 %), potentially increasing the chance of drought in those regions. About 10 % of the global land area is projected to face simultaneously increasing high extreme streamflow and decreasing low extreme streamflow, reflecting the potentially worsening hazard of both flood and drought; further, these regions tend to be highly populated parts of the globe, currently holding around 30 % of the world's population (over 2.1 billion people). In a world more than 4° warmer by the end of the 21st century compared to the pre-industrial era (RCP8.5 scenario), changes in magnitude of streamflow extremes are projected to be about twice as large as in a 2° warmer world (RCP2.6 scenario). Results also show that inter-GHM uncertainty in streamflow changes, due to representation of terrestrial hydrology, is greater than the inter-GCM uncertainty due to simulation of climate change. Under both forcing scenarios, there is high model agreement for increases in streamflow of the regions near and above the Arctic Circle, and consequent increases in the freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean, while subtropical arid areas experience a reduction in streamflow.

Highlights

Floods and droughts, the natural disasters with the highest cost in human lives (Dilley et al, 2005; IFRC, 2002), are projected to become more intense under anthropogenic global warming and climate change (Dai, 2011; Dankers et al, 2013; Field, 2012; Stocker et al, 2013)
The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) streamflow projections are produced by multiple global hydrological models (GHMs), based on bias-corrected meteorological outputs of five global climate model (GCM) from the fifth version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) (Dankers et al, 2013), which are downscaled to 0.5◦ resolution for the period of 1971–2099
Based on multi-model mean results under the RCP8.5 scenario, 36.7 % of global land area shows an increase in the high extreme (95th percentile) of streamflow, potentially increasing the chance of flooding in those regions, and 39.2 % of land area shows an average 21.10 % decrease in P95

Summary

Introduction

The natural disasters with the highest cost in human lives (Dilley et al, 2005; IFRC, 2002), are projected to become more intense under anthropogenic global warming and climate change (Dai, 2011; Dankers et al, 2013; Field, 2012; Stocker et al, 2013). An increased amount of atmospheric water content is expected to intensify precipitation extremes (Allan and Soden, 2008; O’Gorman and Schneider, 2009; Trenberth, 2011), as evidenced by both observations and GCM simulations (Alexander et al, 2006; Asadieh and Krakauer, 2015, 2016; Kharin et al, 2013; Min et al, 2011; O’Gorman and Schneider, 2009; Stocker et al, 2013; Toreti et al, 2013; Westra et al, 2013), Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. Change in intensity and distribution of precipitation events under climate change is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of flood and drought events in many regions (Alfieri et al, 2015, 2017; Asadieh and Krakauer, 2015, 2016; Dankers et al, 2013; Ehsani et al, 2017; Field, 2012; Held and Soden, 2006; Min et al, 2011; O’Gorman and Schneider, 2009; Stocker et al, 2013)

Methods

Results

Conclusion