Abstract
AbstractFast socio‐economic development in agriculture and urbanization resulted in increasing nutrient export by rivers, causing coastal eutrophication in China. In addition, climate change may affect hydrology, and as a result, nutrient flows from land to sea. This study aims at a better understanding of how future socio‐economic and climatic changes may affect coastal eutrophication in China. We modeled river export of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and phosphorus (TDP) in 2050 for six scenarios combining socio‐economic pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We used the newly developed MARINA 2.0 (Model to Assess River Inputs of Nutrients to seAs) model. We found that global change can make coastal eutrophication control in China more difficult. In 2050 coastal waters may be considerably more polluted or considerably cleaner than today depending on the SSP‐RCP scenarios. By 2050, river export of TDN and TDP is 52% and 56% higher than in 2012, respectively, in SSP3‐RCP8.5 (assuming large challenges for sustainable socio‐economic development, and severe climate change). In contrast, river export of nutrients could be 56% (TDN) and 85% (TDP) lower in 2050 than in 2012 in SSP1‐RCP2.6 (assuming sustainable socio‐economic development, and low climate change). Climate change alone may increase river export of nutrients considerably through hydrology: We calculate 24% higher river export of TDN and 16% higher TDP for the SSP2 scenario assuming severe climate change compared to the same scenario with low climate change (SSP2‐RCP8.5 vs. SSP2‐RCP2.6). Policies and relevant technologies combining improved nutrient management and climate mitigation may help to improve water quality in rivers and coastal waters of China.
Highlights
Socio‐economic changes associated with population growth, urbanization, food production, and waste management alter biogeochemical cycles (Billen et al, 2010; Bouwman et al, 2009; Van Puijenbroek et al, 2019)
By 2050, river export of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) and TDP is 52% and 56% higher than in 2012, respectively, in SSP3‐RCP8.5
We explore future trends in nutrient export by Chinese rivers as affected by socio‐economic and climate change for the scenarios combining socio‐economic pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
Summary
Socio‐economic changes associated with population growth, urbanization, food production, and waste management alter biogeochemical cycles (Billen et al, 2010; Bouwman et al, 2009; Van Puijenbroek et al, 2019). This has resulted in increasing nutrient inputs to rivers. Rivers transport increasing amounts of nutrients to coastal waters, causing coastal eutrophication and harmful algal blooms (Dai et al, 2010; Huan et al, 2016; Zhou et al, 2018). Such blooms occurred approximately 500 times in coastal areas of China between 2006 and 2012 (China's State Oceanic Administration, 2012). The area affected by coastal eutrophication in China has been increasing to be 98,000 km in 2012 (SOA, 2012)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
