Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems: An Initial Integration

Abstract

We present a framework for integrating GCTE's research programme based on three interacting axes-time, space and applicability. We use the contributed papers from the First GCTE Science Conference to undertake an initial integration of GCTE-type research using this three-axis structure. We assess where progress is being made, where progress is likely to be made in the near future, and where critical gaps exist which require a major effort to eliminate. Elevated CO2 research is one of the most mature areas within GCTE, and provides scope for initial integration along all three axes. Soils, being key to the functioning of all terrestrial ecosystems, provide another excellent opportunity to integrate research along all three axes. A major obstacle to further integration is our lack of understanding of landscape-scale processes, particularly disturbances, and our ability to simulate global change impacts on them. GCTE's Focus 2, Change in Ecosystem Structure, is perhaps best placed to attack many of the gaps that prevent this further integration along space and time scales, and is now entering a rapid development phase; the other Foci also have a major role to play. Integration specifically along the applicability axis is being developed in some areas but requires an enhanced effort to achieve its potential to increase scientific efficiency and effectiveness. The emerging field of global ecology, i.e. ecology at very large space and time scales, is progressing rapidly on the basis of linkages to more traditional ecological research at smaller scales, but requires further interaction with work along the