Global burden of stomach cancer attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2044

Abstract

ObjectivesThis study aimed to assess the global temporal trends of stomach cancer attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2019 and to predict the global burden by 2044. Study designThis was a comprehensive analysis based on data provided by the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. MethodsBased on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and corresponding age-standardised rates of stomach cancer attributable to smoking by sociodemographic index (SDI), region, country, sex, and age were used to assess temporal trends from 1990 to 2019 by calculating the average annual percentage change (AAPC). In addition, the global burden of stomach cancer attributable to smoking up to 2044 was predicted using age–period–cohort models. ResultsGlobally, in 2019, 17.96% of stomach cancer deaths (1.72 million) and 17.15% of stomach cancer DALYs (38.13 million) were attributable to smoking, representing an increase compared to 1990; however, smoking-attributable age-standardised rates of mortality (ASMRs) and DALYs (ASDRs) significantly declined to 2.12/100,000 and 45.82/100,000 in 2019, respectively. While stomach cancer ASMR and ASDR attributable to smoking decreased in all regions and in most countries, they increased by >10% in some countries. A positive correlation was found between SDI and age-standardised rates (rASMR = 0.28, P < 0.01; rASDR = 0.29, P < 0.01). By 2044, although global age-standardised rates for smoking-attributable stomach cancer are predicted to decline, deaths and DALYs are estimated to increase to 2.22 million and 42.14 million, respectively. ConclusionsStomach cancer deaths and DALYs attributable to smoking have increased over the past 30 years and will continue to increase. Consequently, targeted prevention efforts and tobacco-control strategies need to be further developed and improved.