Global burden of myocarditis in youth and middle age (1990-2019): A systematic analysis of the disease burden and thirty-year forecast

Abstract

BackgroundMyocarditis is increasingly recognized as a critical health issue, particularly among youth and middle-aged populations. This study aims to analyze the global burden and trends of myocarditis in these age groups to emphasize the need for region-specific prevention and treatment strategies. MethodsUsing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study (1990-2019), we evaluated the age-standardized rates (ASR) of myocarditis in individuals aged 10 to 54 years. We calculated average annual percentage changes (AAPC) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Additionally, we examined the correlation between myocarditis incidence and the Human Development Index (HDI) and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Age and sex trends in myocarditis were analyzed, and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were used to forecast prevalence trends up to 2050. ResultsThe High-income Asia Pacific region had the highest ASR of myocarditis, while North Africa and the Middle East had the lowest. North Africa and the Middle East also experienced the fastest average annual growth in ASR, whereas High-income North America saw the most significant decline. Correlational analysis showed that countries with a high SDI exhibited higher myocarditis ASR. The burden of myocarditis was greater among males than females, with this disparity increasing with age. Projections indicate a stable trend in the incidence of myocarditis among the youth and middle-aged population up to 2050, although the total number of cases is expected to rise. ConclusionOur study reveals a significant upward trend in myocarditis among youth and middle-aged populations, highlighting the urgency for early monitoring and preventative strategies.