Global burden of liver cirrhosis 1990–2019 and 20 years forecast: results from the global burden of disease study 2019

Abstract

Background Cirrhosis is a disease that imposes a heavy burden worldwide, but its incidence varies widely by region. Therefore, we analysed data on the incidence and mortality of cirrhosis in 204 countries and territories from 1990–2019 and projected the disease development from 2019–2039. Methods Data on the incidence and mortality of liver cirrhosis from 1990 to 2019 were acquired from the public Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. In addition, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of the age-standardized rate (ASR) of cirrhosis in different regions were calculated. The estimates of risk factor exposure were summarized, and the proportion of causes and risk factors of liver cirrhosis and their relationship with the human development index (HDI) and socio–demographic index (SDI) were analysed. Trends in the incidence of cirrhosis in 2019–2039 were predicted using Nordpred and BAPC models. Results Globally, the ASR of cirrhosis incidence decreased by 0.05% per year from 25.7/100,000 in 1990 to 25.3/100,000 in 2019. The mortality risk associated with cirrhosis is notably lower in females than in males (13 per 100,000 vs 25 per 100,000). The leading cause of cirrhosis shifted from hepatitis B to C. Globally, alcohol use increased by 14%. In line, alcohol use contributed to 49.3% of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and 48.4% of global deaths from liver cirrhosis. Countries with a low ASR in 1990 experienced a faster increase in cirrhosis, whereas in 2019, the opposite was observed. In countries with high SDI, the ASR of cirrhosis is generally lower. Finally, projections indicate that the number and incidence of cirrhosis will persistently rise from 2019–2039. Conclusions Cirrhosis poses an increasing health burden. Given the changing etiology, there is an imperative to strengthen the prevention of hepatitis C and alcohol consumption, to achieve early reduce the incidence of cirrhosis.