Global burden and future trends in psoriasis epidemiology: insights from the global burden of disease study 2019 and predictions to 2030.

Abstract

Millions of people worldwide are affected by psoriasis, one of the most prevalent skin conditions. Currently, there is a lack of high-quality epidemiological reports on psoriasis. This study aimed to reveal trends in psoriasis epidemiology in 1990-2019. Using data from the GBD study 2019, we examined psoriasis epidemiology globally and across regions defined by the social-demographic index (SDI). Trends in incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates were assessed using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC)s. Age-period-cohort analysis examined risk variations, and decomposition analysis identified factors impacting the psoriasis burden. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model predicted future incidence. Frontier analysis associated psoriasis outcomes with socio-demographic development. In 2019, the global psoriasis burden included 4,622,594 incidence, 40,805,386 prevalence, and 3,505,736 DALY cases. Despite variations in SDI regions, the overall trend showed a decline in psoriasis rates from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC = - 0.76). The age-specific analysis indicated that the highest incidence of psoriasis was observed among individuals aged 40-64years (global, 1,606,429). Epidemiological shifts contributed negatively to global incidence and DALYs by - 80.52% and - 103.06%, respectively. Countries like San Marino and Spain displayed the highest effective differences in the decomposition analysis. By 2030, while incidence cases per 10,000 might rise (487.36, 423.62 to 551.10), age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 were predicted to decline (53.67, 0.00 to 259.99). This research revealed a global decline in psoriasis incidence rate from 1990 to 2019, with predictions suggesting this trend continues through 2030. Geographic disparities underscore the importance of tailored healthcare policies.