Abstract
Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.
Highlights
Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050
For the major commercial crops and across the Globe, the impact of both potential cropping intensity and profit-maximizing reallocation of crops on potential biomass production increase (PBPI) by coupling the biophysical, dynamic crop growth model PROMET with the computable general equilibrium model DART-BIO
We show that the PBPI of current cropland rises from 79 to 148 pp when multiple harvests are fully realized given the biophysical conditions and economically efficient land-use decisions are included
Summary
Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today’s cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers’ profit By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today’s global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s’ demands. The studies use biophysical models, field trials or maximum farmed yields[14,15,16,17] and take the local environmental and climate conditions as well as stresses (water, temperature, radiation, and so on) into account They use current agricultural land-use patterns[20,21] and statistics of harvested area and cropping intensity[22] (number of annual harvests).
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
