Abstract

The author explains global bioenergy supply potential and economic bioenergy uses in the future calculated by a multiregional global land use and energy model (GLUE). Concerning the bioenergy supply potential, the following results were obtained. (1) Supply potential of energy crops produced from surplus arable land will be available in North America, Western Europe, Oceania, Latin America, and the former USSR and Eastern Europe. However, the potential of energy crops will be strongly affected by variation of parameters of food supply and demand such as animal food demand. (2) Bioenergy supply potential of bio- mass residues will be stable against a change of a food demand parameter. The ul- timate bioenergy supply potential of biomass residues will be 265 EJ/year in the world in 2100. (3) CO2 emission constraints will be advantageous to bioenergy, the CO2 intensity of which is close to zero. In 2050 the bioenergy used economi- cally in the world is 74 EJ/year in no CO2 constraint case (FREE case), 131 EJ/year in COP3 forever case (CP3F case) and 337 EJ/year in a case where the CO2 emissions will be 30% less than that in CP3F (C30R case). (4) Biomass ga- sifier and biomass-gasifier-combined-cycle (BGCC) will be used on a large scale in any cases in 2050. Synthesis gas (H2 and CO) produced by biomass gasifier will be used mainly to make synthesized liquid fuel such as methanol and syn-oil.

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