Global bioenergy potentials projections for 2050

Abstract

This paper makes projections of the theoretical and technical potentials of bioenergy supply for 2050. The projections consider changes in available land for bioenergy and food for the global demand and advancements in yield, productivity, expansion of bio-waste recovery, and energy conversion. We present a literature review on projections. We introduced a novel logical and transparent forecasting model. Three future scenarios were established: business as usual (BUS), optimistic trends (OPT), and full adaptation response (FAR). The projection is carried out based on four adjusting factors. An uncertainty analysis was carry-out based on a Monte-Carlo method. Projections of bioenergy production in 2050 were compared with other projections in the literature. The FAR scenario showed that it would be possible to produce twenty-one times the current primary bioenergy supply and to even supply all global primary energy demand in 2050, mostly by energy crops. The assumptions adopted for the BUS and OPT scenarios make their projections more likely. Therefore, the contribution of bioenergy in the global energy matrix is expected to be between 64 and 313 EJ (7.5%–37%) in 2050. There would be a significant change in the composition of the bioenergy supply from today's mostly firewood to energy crops and biowastes. The technical potential for fuel and electric power mostly follow the supply trends for primary bioenergy (theoretical). The potential avoided greenhouse emissions are estimated. The heuristics and the level of transparency of the novel model will allow adjustments and exploration of other scenarios as time passes.