Abstract
Abstract. This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of historical (1990–2010) global anthropogenic particulate matter (PM) emissions including the consistent and harmonized calculation of mass-based size distribution (PM1, PM2. 5, PM10), as well as primary carbonaceous aerosols including black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). The estimates were developed with the integrated assessment model GAINS, where source- and region-specific technology characteristics are explicitly included. This assessment includes a number of previously unaccounted or often misallocated emission sources, i.e. kerosene lamps, gas flaring, diesel generators, refuse burning; some of them were reported in the past for selected regions or in the context of a particular pollutant or sector but not included as part of a total estimate. Spatially, emissions were calculated for 172 source regions (as well as international shipping), presented for 25 global regions, and allocated to 0.5° × 0.5° longitude–latitude grids. No independent estimates of emissions from forest fires and savannah burning are provided and neither windblown dust nor unpaved roads emissions are included. We estimate that global emissions of PM have not changed significantly between 1990 and 2010, showing a strong decoupling from the global increase in energy consumption and, consequently, CO2 emissions, but there are significantly different regional trends, with a particularly strong increase in East Asia and Africa and a strong decline in Europe, North America, and the Pacific region. This in turn resulted in important changes in the spatial pattern of PM burden, e.g. European, North American, and Pacific contributions to global emissions dropped from nearly 30 % in 1990 to well below 15 % in 2010, while Asia's contribution grew from just over 50 % to nearly two-thirds of the global total in 2010. For all PM species considered, Asian sources represented over 60 % of the global anthropogenic total, and residential combustion was the most important sector, contributing about 60 % for BC and OC, 45 % for PM2. 5, and less than 40 % for PM10, where large combustion sources and industrial processes are equally important. Global anthropogenic emissions of BC were estimated at about 6.6 and 7.2 Tg in 2000 and 2010, respectively, and represent about 15 % of PM2. 5 but for some sources reach nearly 50 %, i.e. for the transport sector. Our global BC numbers are higher than previously published owing primarily to the inclusion of new sources. This PM estimate fills the gap in emission data and emission source characterization required in air quality and climate modelling studies and health impact assessments at a regional and global level, as it includes both carbonaceous and non-carbonaceous constituents of primary particulate matter emissions. The developed emission dataset has been used in several regional and global atmospheric transport and climate model simulations within the ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project and beyond, serves better parameterization of the global integrated assessment models with respect to representation of black carbon and organic carbon emissions, and built a basis for recently published global particulate number estimates.
Highlights
Particulate matter (PM) or aerosols are solid and liquid particles small enough to remain airborne
For all particulate matter (PM) species considered, sources in Asia represented over 60 % of the global anthropogenic total (Table 7), with residential combustion being the most important sector, its share declines with increasing particle size: about 60 % for black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), 45 % for PM2.5 and less than 40 % for PM10 for which large combustion sources and industrial processes are important (Table 8)
We argue that assessment of health impacts due to PM using results of the global emission projections developed in the first place for climate simulations, e.g. RCPs – which included anthropogenic BC and OC, windblown dust, and open fires but not the non-carbonaceous component of primary PM2.5 and PM10 emissions originating from combustion, industrial processes, and some fugitive sources – might lead to inconsistent results and underestimation of PM concentrations and regional impacts
Summary
Particulate matter (PM) or aerosols are solid and liquid particles small enough to remain airborne. PM can be directly emitted to the atmosphere (primary PM) or it can form from gaseous precursors (secondary PM). The size of PM stretches from clusters of molecules with a diameter of a few nanometres up to micrometre-sized abrasion products. This vast dimensional spectrum is reflected in the varying composition and characteristics of PM measured at source and receptor sites. PM species are important constituents of the atmosphere and they play a role in the earth’s climate system. Some PM species, i.e. black carbon, absorb visible light and warm the atmosphere, whereas other species, i.e. sulfates and organics, reflect sunlight back to space and cool the climate (Bond et al, 2013). There is well-documented evidence that exposure to PM results in adverse effects on human health (e.g. Anenberg et al, 2012; Lim et al, 2012; WHO, 2004)
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