Global and regional forecast of epithelial ovarian cancer incidence over a ten-year period (2018–2028)

Abstract

Introduction Ovarian cancer is the 7th most frequent cancer in women globally and ranks 18th of all cancers. The aim of this study is to forecast the incidence of epithelial ovarian cancer globally and by geographic and economic regions over a 10-year period (2018 to 2028). Methods Using publicly available country-specific cancer registries, appropriate ICD 10 codes, and relevant histology proportions, epithelial ovarian cancer incidence was estimated for 45 countries grouped by 6 regions, representing approximately 90% of the world's population. Our literature review of risk factors and the historic trend of age-specific incidence of ovarian cancer lead us to forecast the incidence of this disease based on demographic changes only. The proportion of BRCA1/2 mutation among ovarian cancer patients was estimated from a selection of the most relevant publications and were pooled by geographic region. To estimate the number of incident cases globally, we derived a weighted average of the aggregate estimates for each region. Results In 2018, we estimate there will be 270 thousand diagnosed incident cases of ovarian cancer worldwide. The number of diagnosed incident cases of ovarian cancer worldwide will increase by 18% over the period 2018–2028. The number of diagnosed incident cases of ovarian cancer in 2018 is highest in the lower-income countries of the Asia-Pacific region, accounting for 44% of the global total. Growth in the number of diagnosed incident cases from 2018–2028 will be greater across lower-income countries (24%), than across high-income countries (7%). There is a substantial difference in the risk of ovarian cancer between high-income and lower-income countries, at 8 per 100,000 per year across the former and 4 per 100,000 per year across the latter. Conclusions The incidence of epithelial ovarian cancer is expected to increase globally, primarily driven by the aging of the population. Lower income countries contribute the majority (64%) of ovarian cancer cases.