Abstract
We quantify global and regional aggregate damages from global warming of 1.5 to 4 °C above pre-industrial levels using a well-established integrated assessment model, PAGE09. We find mean global aggregate damages in 2100 of 0.29% of GDP if global warming is limited to about 1.5 °C (90% confidence interval 0.09–0.60%) and 0.40% for 2 °C (range 0.12–0.91%). These are, respectively, 92% and 89% lower than mean losses of 3.67% of GDP (range 0.64–10.77%) associated with global warming of 4 °C. The net present value of global aggregate damages for the 2008–2200 period is estimated at $48.7 trillion for ~ 1.5 °C global warming (range $13–108 trillion) and $60.7 trillion for 2 °C (range $15–140 trillion). These are, respectively, 92% and 90% lower than the mean NPV of $591.7 trillion of GDP for 4 °C warming (range $70–1920 trillion). This leads to a mean social cost of CO2 emitted in 2020 of ~ $150 for 4 °C warming as compared to $30 at ~ 1.5 °C warming. The benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2 °C might be underestimated since PAGE09 is not recalibrated to reflect the recent understanding of the full range of risks at 1.5 °C warming.
Highlights
Estimates of the global aggregate damages due to global warming are generally sparse
The PAGE09 is used to estimate the global aggregate economic damages associated with future climate scenarios exhibiting between 1.5 and 4 °C of global warming relative to preindustrial levels (Fig. 2)
The results reported in this paper are the sum of the damages in all four sectors, which we call aggregate damages
Summary
Estimates of the global aggregate damages due to global warming are generally sparse. As countries ratify the Paris Agreement of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) are converted to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), containing their pledges to limit or reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 or 2030. These pledges are presently inadequate for achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement (that is limiting warming to ‘well below 2C’ and ‘pursuing efforts’ to limit global warming to 1.5 °C) (UNFCCC 2016; UNEP 2020) and are generally estimated to result in warming levels around 2.9 °C (https://climateactiontracker.org/)
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