Global and local aspects of world energy consumption: forecast and risks

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to form a forecast of energy consumption at the global level in the long term, taking into account sectoral changes and the identification of possible deviation limits. Projections of total energy consumption at the global level, as well as by sector, were based on correlation analysis, autoregressive modelling and cluster analysis. The scientific contribution of this study is the formed forecast of energy consumption by regions and sectors until 2050, which is supplemented by clustering. Based on the developed forecasts of global energy consumption with a geographical distribution, the simulated results show that there is a slight increase in energy consumption in Europe compared to the other regions under study. The most significant increase in energy consumption is predicted in the Middle East. The study indicates the risk of exceeding the volume of energy consumption compared to the forecasts of international organisations, which were formed in previous years. The clustering showed the possible stratification of the world community in the context of energy consumption, which signals the migration of values of countries in the context of energy supply and increasing sustainability of the external environment.